Monday, August 4, 2008

Morning Afterthoughts: Lack of Depth Sinks Crew

I really don't have much to say about the Crew's 2-0 loss on Saturday nightn, other than the obvious. The Crew lost because of poor finishing, poor defense, and a ton of players missing, due to callup, suspensions, and injury. With both teams at full stregth, I'm sure the Crew would have fared better. And yet, they could have tied or won that game, had they hit on a few of the sitters that were missed. Ah well.

The Good: Guille, Gaven, Peterson, Zayner, Moreno.

The Bad: Iro, Marshall's injury, Evans misses, Moreno's misses, Guille's misses.
I was going to say "Sigi's subs" here for not bringing on Garey until the 70th minute; but when two of your subs get burned due to injury, it throws the plan out the window.

The Ugly: How did Nate Jacqua stay on the field after this tackle?



Tell me how that is not a red card? Also tell me how he didn't get his 2nd yellow 10 minutes later when he hit Iro with his studs in the thigh a full second after the ball had been played? Meanwhile, Steve Lenhart watched and put his head in his hands.

But insted of belaboring the obvious, I want to change gears. The Crew are sitting at a weird point in the season. They are off for a week, then come back but won't be at full strength, unless the US and Nigeria can't make it out of their group stage at the Olympics. Then we play Dallas twice in three weeks (Houston and Dallas roadtrips in August? Gee, thanks MLS Scheduling Computer...) before heading into the most important stretch of our season, where the final nine of eleven games are against the Eastern Conference.

Menawhile, the transfer window for MLS closes on August 15th. Do the Crew need help? Should we trade someone? Splash some international cash? Kidnap Pat Noonan and drag him back to Columbus in Crew Cat's Van? And if any of that happens, who would the Crew be looking to replace?

Just for the heck of it, I'll list the positions, the players who play at each, and a percentage of confidence I have that the Crew cannot find someone who will perform better at their salary, thus showing us who is expendable. Of course, most of these salaries are guaranteed by now, so it's not like we can just cut someone and keep their money. Still, it's interesting to see what the Crew are getting for their money.

For example, I don't think we're going to find someone who will perform any better than Lenhart while being paid $12,900. It's the league minimum, so at best, we could maybe find someone as good as he is for that price. So I have 100% confidence we can do no better than Lenhart in his situation. Same goes for a high-salaried player like Guille, who has shown over the course of a year and a half that he is a leader and true engine on this team. We aren't going to find someone who is a guarantee to perform like he has been.

However, someone like Nico Hernandez, who was making 100k and riding the pine? Well I have little doubt the Crew can and in fact will do better than him before things are said and done, seeing as how they have already released him. But even when he was here, I know for sure I could do exactly what he did for $100,000: sit on my ass and barely make an impact when brought into the game.

Forwards (And Guille)
Guillermo Barros
Schelotto $375,000 - 100%
Alejandro Moreno $131,000 - 80%
Steven Lenhart $12,600 - 100%
Jason Garey $60,625 - 60%
Geroge Josten $12,600 - NA

I feel fairly confident of all of these guys. Though I note we could do better than Garey, that's mainly just because we have two guys (Rogers and Lenhart) who have performed better and make less money. I like his heart though as well as his ability he showed us in the Colorado game, and don't truly view him as expendable. Josten, since he's seen no time on the field, doesn't rate at all. But our forward situation, does not seem to be a problem area.

Midefield
Emmanuel Ekpo $123,000 - 70%
Robbie Rogers $57,500 - 99%
Eddie Gaven $165,000 - 40%
Brad Evans $33,000 - 80%
Brian Carrol $126,000 - 70%
Stefani Miglioranzi $84,200 - 70%
Duncan Oughton $75,000 - 30%
Andrew Peterson $12,900 - 90%
Cory Elenio $12,900 - NA
Kevin Burns $12,900 - NA

At $165,000 Gaven is always going to get looked at. I don't want to see us lose him, as he's only 21, and has looked good since coming back from injury. But for the purposes of this argument, $165,000 is an awful lot of money, and it seems as though for the money, there must be someone better than present-day Gaven. And in case you're wondering why Gaven gets paid so much, consider that the Crew are paying a contract negotiated between Gaven and the NY Red Bulls. The man in the Red Bulls FO who OK'd the deal? Alexi Lalas.

And yes, as much as we all love and respect the Kiwi, Duncan Oughton just flat out doesn't have it anymore. $75,000 could go a long way towards finding some help in a midfield that has truly missed Adam Moffat.

Defense

Chad Marshall $148,000 - 90%
Frankie Hejduk %175,000 - 70%
Andy Iro $53,500 - 70%
Danny O'Rourke $69,000 - 70%
Gino Padula $145,000 - 20%
Jed Zayner $43,800 - 60%
Ezra Hendrickson $72,000 - 10%
Ryan Junge $12,900 - 90%
Ryan Miller $12,900 - NA

If Gino could play left back, he's worth whatever we can pay him. But since he hasn't proven to be healthy yet, I don't know that we should be paying a guy that much to ice his knees. No one can predict an injury, of course, but the fact that he had only played in 6 games over a 2 year period might have tipped us off. And yes, for $72,000 I could buy a stack of bricks to set on the field that would play better defense than Ezra Hendrickson. You're telling me that the Crew couldn't spend that $210,000 on a sturdy anchor at center back?

GK
William Hesmer $70,000 - 100%
Andy Gruenenbaum $33,000 - 90%

Just for point of reference, San Jose is paying Joe Cannon $213,000 this season. Hell, Matt Reis is only making 160k! But for $70,000 the only two guys near that pay figure of any talent are John Busch ($80k) and Brad Guzan (was $103,000, but not anymore). So, yeah, I don't think we're going to find anyone better than William Hesmer for the money.

Out for season:
Adam Moffat $17,700 - 100%

Overall, this raises some interesting questions. The Crew are being fairly prudent, as Gaven seems to be the only overpaid player based on current performance. Next year, the Crew will most likely have to up the payout on guys like Rogers, Moffat, Hesmer, and maybe even Guille or Lenhart to keep them from leaving the fray. And while there has been talk of adding a Designated Player, how would that affect a guy like Guille? This is his team, and if a big name midfielder is brought in, I wonder how the new player would interact with our beloved Argentine.

Still, if there was ever a time to make a move, it's now, as the Crew have two weeks to get him acclimated into the system.

So what do you think? Want to see the Crew spend a lot of money now to add a final piece or two to the puzzle for this year, or leave that room for next year, and go into the playoffs with what we have?

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